I  hosted a Napoleonics game for the guys this past weekend that was  another one of my hypothetical 'what-if' scenarios - as JohnB was kind  enough to bring down his beautiful Russian collection from Saskatoon,  this game was set in Poland around Christmas 1806.  
First, the 'true-to-history' bit:  
October  1806 had seen the French crush the Prussian army at the twin battles of  Jena-Auerstaedt and by December Napoleon his Grande Armee was encamped  in Poland, preparing to bring the Russians at bay in the upcoming spring  campaign.
Wanting  to catch the French unprepared while they were scattered in their  cantonments, the Russians decided to initiate a surprise winter  offensive. Nonetheless, by pure coincidence, at that same time Marshal  Ney unilaterally decided to move his corps forward into a better  foraging area. So the two forces began to move very near to one another,  close to the Baltic coast.
In  London, with the defeat of the Prussians and the subsequent advance of  the French army into the Baltic region, the British were becoming very  concerned that Denmark, with its significant navy, was at risk of being  annexed by France or worse, would be convinced into a French alliance.  Accordingly, discussions had been going on between Britain and Denmark  with the British 'offering' to quarantine the Danish navy until the end  of hostilities with Napoleon. Not surprisingly the Danes were not  interested. 
Now, my hypothetical premise (i.e. 'made-up tosh'): 
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